With the US economy slowing and inflation low, we expect the Fed to confirm a pause in its monetary policy normalisation. Given the controlled slowdown in the US economy and equity-market momentum, we believe the Fed has found the perfect balance.
Recent ECB comments suggest that the horizon for a rate hike may be moving further away, based on the central bank’s uncertain growth outlook and concerns over weak inflation. The ECB is also keen to preserve banks’ ability to lend to the euro-zone economy.
With the Fed having largely achieved its objectives of full employment and price stability, we expect short-term rates to stay unchanged at the FOMC’s next meeting. This should be good for investors, but don’t rule out a rate hike by the end of the year if inflation surges, or if tariff- or Brexit-related risks recede.