Active is: Adapting to shifts in global trade

3 ways the US-China trade war could end

Men shaking hands

Summary

Given recent events – the US just increased tariffs on USD 200bn of Chinese imports, and China retaliated on USD 60bn of US goods – it’s getting more difficult to see a clear path to a US-China trade agreement. But talks are ongoing, which opens up three potential scenarios for resolving this dispute.

Our view of three possible scenarios



Source: Allianz Global Investors, Citi Investment Research, UBS Research, FactSet. Data as at May 2019.

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About the author

Mona Mahajan

Mona Mahajan

US Investment Strategist

Ms Mahajan is the US investment strategist and a director with Allianz Global Investors, which she joined in 2017. As a member of the Global Economics and Strategy team, she is responsible for providing US retail and institutional clients with differentiated investment thought leadership. Ms Mahajan is also a key spokesperson, communicating – both internally and externally – the firm’s high-conviction investment ideas and views from the Global Policy Council. Ms Mahajan was previously a fixed-income portfolio manager, a structured-finance product specialist and a global market strategist at MetLife. Prior to this, she was an emerging-market strategist at Mirae Asset Global Investments; she also worked at hedge fund companies Para Advisors and Ziff Brothers Investments. Ms Mahajan has a B.S. in economics from The Wharton School, The University of Pennsylvania; a B.A.Sc. in computer sciences from the University of Pennsylvania; and an M.B.A. from Harvard Business School.

Christiaan Tuntono

Christiaan Tuntono

Senior Economist, Asia Pacific

Mr Tuntono is Senior Economist, Asia Pacific with Allianz Global Investors. He joined the firm in 2018 and is based in Hong Kong. As a member of the Global Economics & Strategy team, Mr Tuntono is responsible for regional economics and strategy research. He works closely with the investment and sales teams in Hong Kong, Singapore and other offices across Asia to present the firm's views to regional clients. Mr Tuntono has had an extensive financial career as a macro specialist, previously working for Credit Suisse, J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs in a variety of roles - including as an economist, a foreign-exchange sales representative and a credit analyst. He has a B.Sc. in economics from the Wharton School and a B.A. in economics from the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He also has an M.A. in international relations from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Active is: Finding new sources of income

Four compelling reasons to consider Asian bonds

by David Tan | 10/06/2019
Asian bonds

Summary

Higher yield potential and added diversification aren’t the only qualities attracting fixed-income investors to Asia. The region’s bond markets are large and growing, and reform-minded governments are providing the necessary policy support to maintain growth.

Key takeaways

  • Economic growth in Asia is supported by China’s stabilising demand and the efforts of Asian central banks
  • Asian bonds offer attractive yield potential, particularly compared with the typically low to negative yields of bonds from more developed nations
  • Asian credit fundamentals remain broadly stable: companies generally have lower debt levels and are maintaining adequate cash levels on their balance sheets
  • Our medium-term outlook for China’s bond market remains positive thanks to policymakers’ efforts to balance growth and stability, and the trend towards more open, integrated markets