The next trillion-dollar IPOs are coming – are markets ready?

The next initial public offering (IPO) wave could mark the moment when some of the most influential private companies of the past decade finally enter public markets – at a scale those markets rarely see. SpaceX is expected to list on 12 June, with OpenAI and Anthropic likely to follow over the coming quarters.¹ Taken together, this would represent one of the largest bursts of equity issuance in recent memory.

These are not typical IPO candidates. They sit at the centre of two of the most powerful themes in markets today: artificial AI and the commercialisation of space – with the AI theme continuing to broaden rather than fading. They are already operating at a scale where, once listed, they could rival some of the world’s largest public companies. For investors, the key question is how markets absorb assets of this size as they move from private to public hands.

In recent years, equity markets – particularly in the US – have been supported by a favourable supply-demand dynamic, with robust share buybacks offsetting limited new issuance. The arrival of several very large IPOs could shift that balance, although we think this will result in reallocation rather than disruption.

How markets absorb these IPOs will depend on several factors: how much capital is actually raised, the speed at which freely tradable shares increase (particularly as lock-up periods expire, which affects index inclusion), and the overall level of equity inflows in the US during the issuance period – which could also be influenced by factors such as the upcoming US mid-term elections.

We estimate that three huge capital raisings over two to three quarters can be absorbed by markets, assuming there is no major change in investor sentiment and equity fund flows.

Once these companies enter major indices at meaningful weights, capital will be reallocated away from existing constituents as their weights decline. Index providers have already indicated that inclusion is likely to happen faster and with fewer conditions than in the past. Even sizeable capital raisings may prove manageable in this context. In fact, even if a very large company were added to an index, funds that track that index would likely have to sell around US 40 billion of Nvidia stock to make room for it – less than 1% of Nvidia’s total market value.²

So, while this is unlikely to be a disruptive “flood” of supply, it will still have meaningful impacts. As well as forcing index-tracking funds to rebalance, the IPO wave is likely to shift investor attention. Today, investors often gain exposure to themes like AI indirectly – via suppliers, partners or listed “proxies”. Once the core companies themselves become investable, that dynamic changes.

Capital and research focus may migrate toward the newly listed names, potentially challenging incumbents that previously benefited from “proxy premia”.

History provides a useful reference point. IPO waves typically appear in strong markets, when investor enthusiasm is already high, often coinciding with elevated expectations.

History shows that outcomes for investors in large IPOs are mixed, particularly in the years following listing (see Exhibit 1). Companies like Alphabet went on to deliver exceptional long-term returns, while others – from Meta in its early years to more recent listings such as Uber or Rivian – struggled once the initial excitement faded.

Much depends not just on the quality of the business, but on the market environment that follows. As the contrasting experiences of Visa and Blackstone, both listed ahead of the global financial crisis, demonstrate, timing and context can matter as much as fundamentals.

We also think that the expected valuation multiples for capital-intense, as-yet-unprofitable companies could increase the risk of post-IPO underperformance.

This IPO wave is distinguished by its size, but also by its strategic significance. For years, some of the most important companies driving innovation have remained private for longer, accessible only to venture capital or private equity investors. A listing opens the door to participation by a much broader investor base, particularly in areas like AI where listed options have so far been limited or indirect. However, this often coincides with favourable market conditions and strong investor appetite. For existing shareholders, it is a chance to crystallise value. For new investors, it can be a moment of entry where expectations are already high.

This pattern has played out before, but may be amplified here given the scale of capital required and the intensity of interest around AI.

Investors may also need to remember that despite the current once-in-a-generation AI capex supercycle, all companies are vulnerable to more down-to-earth cyclical trends, such as advertising cash flows. As long-duration growth stocks, they can also be exposed to a potential rise in US Federal Reserve policy rates and bond yields.

¹ Reuters, "Exclusive: SpaceX accelerates IPO timeline, targets June 12 listing on Nasdaq, sources say"; Associated Press, "AI companies are barreling toward huge Wall Street debuts. A look at the biggest players"
² JP Morgan Equity Index Research Large Cap IPOs and Potential Index Inclusion, 11 May 2026