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Interest rates globally fail to accurately reflect fundamentals because QE has distorted markets, says our Global Head of Fixed Income. Investors have certainly benefited from the run-up in prices, but how much lower can rates go when over USD 10 trillion in global bonds have negative yields?
Our Capital Markets and Thematic Research team says one of the biggest reasons for investors to go active is because unprecedented central-bank stimulus has increased correlations. Once monetary policy normalizes, lower correlations could help stocks trade more on fundamentals.
Investors who focus too much on China’s macro issues could miss the bottom-up opportunities available in a country that has more listed companies than the US, says our Asia-Pacific equities CIO. It’s a region that can reward active investors who understand the size and subtleties of a booming marketplace.
While the FOMC isn’t expected to raise rates at its next meeting, the markets may be underestimating the future pace of rate hikes. The Fed should clarify its intentions so the markets can adjust smoothly, particularly given that Trump is getting ready to ramp up his stimulus plans.
While major market returns seemed fairly normal last year, one of the most forceful sector rotations since the 1980s lurked just under the surface, resulting in previously unloved sectors outperforming former investor darlings by a wide margin. Here are three top-down drivers that can move stocks so suddenly.
With new political leadership in Washington DC seeking to repeal the Affordable Care Act, health-care providers are having difficulty planning ahead. But our proprietary Grassroots℠ Research shows that hospitals, capital expenditures should remain steady in a year of uncertainty.
Don’t expect the European Central Bank to announce any major policy change at its 19 January meeting; neither inflation nor job growth are strong enough for the bank to taper or stop its bond purchases. Yet despite Mario Draghi’s willingness to keep all options on the table, the ECB may soon reach its limits.
Our Capital Markets and Thematic Research team says that even though the year ahead will continue to be challenged by uncertainties, market disruptions may prove fleeting—and cooler heads will likely prevail.
By announcing a new rise in interest rates, and hinting at more to come, FOMC members have made a strong statement about their confidence in the US economy. But we expect markets to carefully watch any new data that could change the Fed’s mind.
A 25-basis-point interest-rate increase by the Fed is fully priced in, and strong US economic data already bolster the case for more hikes in 2017. However, any projections for next year don’t reflect Trump’s as-yet unimplemented economic policies.
Our Capital Markets and Thematic Research team says geopolitics, monetary policy and the global economy are the three factors that will exert the most influence on investments in 2017, but it could be a volatile mix.