Outlook & Commentary

Outlook & Commentary
Elections in Italy can be notoriously hard to predict, but the most likely outcomes are a new government from the current centre-right coalition or a new PD/centre-right coalition. The markets should absorb either event in stride; even if bond spreads widen, we believe Italy is still a buy as long as the centre holds.
Outlook & Commentary
A backdrop of stronger US growth forecasts indicates that a recession is unlikely over the next 12 months, says Franck Dixmier. With central-bank liquidity yet to peak, and with long-term rates in Japan and the euro zone at historically low levels, Treasuries remain compelling.
Franck Dixmier | 31/01/2018
Outlook & Commentary
The Fed isn’t expected to make major news during its 30-31 January meeting, but Franck Dixmier says this is still an interesting moment. Investors have finally priced in almost three rate hikes in 2018, and we will begin to learn where incoming Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stands on abandoning inflation targeting.
Franck Dixmier | 29/01/2018
Outlook & Commentary
Investors seem convinced that euro-zone rates will remain lower for longer than is realistic – which is why the ECB knows it must gradually shift expectations. At its 25 January meeting, we expect the bank to modify its forward guidance in an additional step towards normalization of its monetary policy.
Franck Dixmier | 19/01/2018
Outlook & Commentary
Passing a sweeping tax reform bill, Republicans can breathe a sigh of relief. However, can your wallet? Peter Lefkin takes a closer look at how the new bill may shape personal taxes, corporate rates and even the political landscape.
Peter Lefkin | 17/01/2018
Outlook & Commentary
Even as the Fed is expected to hike rates in December as part of its policy normalization, a majority of ECB governing members continue supporting the bank’s asset-purchase programme. Shifting central bank dynamics will make the landscape increasingly difficult for investors to navigate.
Franck Dixmier | 08/12/2017
Outlook & Commentary
The gradual reversal of expansionary monetary policies – at differing paces globally – will require some investors to adjust their approaches. Protecting purchasing power will remain a priority as official inflation understates real-world costs.
Outlook & Commentary
China’s latest National Party Congress wasn’t the model of transparency, but the market appreciated the overall sense of political stability and policy continuity – and the clear vote of confidence for the continued leadership of General Secretary Xi Jinping.
Raymond Chan | 20/11/2017
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