Outlook & Commentary

Outlook & Commentary
As the Netherlands sorts out its new parliament and Article 50 looms, France and Germany will be the next to head to the polls. Will growing populism and anti-Europe sentiment move the EU away from integration toward dis-integration?
Ingo Mainert | 16/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
Now that the VVD party has emerged victorious in the Netherlands’ parliamentary elections, we expect the current administration to continue more or less in its current form – and possibly become even more aligned with Brussels.
Outlook & Commentary
As sterling's devaluation starts to feed through to consumers, UK inflation could see a temporary bump upward this year. But increasing political risks and other weak economic data make the market's expectations of a rate hike by summer 2018 seem ambitious.
Mike Riddell | 14/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
For years, Russia used its energy supplies to drive a wedge between European countries and expand its influence; today, Russian debt is in high demand, attracting a growing number of investors. Both are helping President Putin strive for global relevance while masking some of his country’s structural weaknesses.
Greg Saichin | 14/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
We expect BOJ Governor Kuroda to announce no new actions at this week’s meeting in Japan. Yet although he remains upbeat about inflation expectations, the central bank will need to pave the way for future yield-target adjustments if inflation disappoints as US rates rise.
Stefan Scheurer | 13/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
We fully expect the FOMC to announce a hike in the fed funds rate at its next meeting, following strong US jobs numbers, rising inflation and a supportive macroeconomic backdrop. Not doing so would confound market expectations and risk a surge in volatility.
Franck Dixmier | 10/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
We don’t expect the ECB to announce any major changes at its next meeting, since euro-zone core inflation remains quite low and the market could react strongly to any hint of an end to QE – which would be counterproductive to the central bank’s goals.
Franck Dixmier | 03/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
Our Capital Markets and Thematic Research team outlines six “pro-factual” factors that can guide investors through a world that’s increasingly influenced by irrationality. Topping the list: Keep an eye on Brexit, European elections and US fiscal spending.
Hans-Jörg Naumer | 03/03/2017
Outlook & Commentary
Regulators and policymakers in China have been enticing foreign investors with easier access to its bond markets – and our Asia-Pacific fixed-income CIO says it’s working. Of particular interest are green bonds: China has become the third-largest issuer and we expect continued growth in this area.
David Tan | 27/02/2017
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