6 Pressure Points for US Stocks

Neil Dwane | 06/04/2017
Wall Street New York Stock Exchange

Summary

The highly valued US equity market has served many investors well in recent years, but investors should watch for several factors that could exert downward pressure on stocks. Topping the list: Trumponomics troubles and growing fears of inflation.

Key takeaways
  • US equities have been among the top performers for years, and many long-term investors should continue holding this asset class
  • With US stocks and the US dollar overvalued, however, it’s reasonable to wonder when the market will pull back before starting a new cycle
  • We believe several factors could cause negative market reactions, including a suddenly aggressive Fed, high debt-servicing costs and protectionist politics
  • For alternatives, consider attractively valued assets in Europe and Asia, and look for developing nations making important structural reforms

The eight-year US equity bull market has time and again confounded its many detractors, helping US stocks remain among the top performers since the global financial crisis began. That makes it easy to argue why many long-term investors should continue holding this asset class in their portfolios.

At the same time, the US equity market is highly valued – the current Case-Shiller price-to-earnings ratio of 29.8 is almost double its long-term average – leaving other investors to question whether this is currently the place to pursue growth potential and protect purchasing power.

Equity Markets Chart

What might make the markets pull back?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen about 1 per cent from its all-time high, set earlier this year, and a growing chorus of market watchers is calling for an additional pullback. The US jobs market could also be cooling off after three straight months of growth: Initial estimates suggest that the economy created only 175,000 jobs in March.

Indeed, it seems that the spell holding the markets could be broken by any combination of yet-to-emerge data surprises, policy adjustments, earnings disappointments or political developments. In the meantime, we have identified six factors that may encourage investors overexposed to US equities to review their positions.

1. Trumponomics could provide limited lift

Although the markets initially had high hopes for stimulative new policies from President Trump, the recent failure of his health-care bill has curbed some enthusiasm. Moreover, not all of Mr Trump’s remaining proposals are measures that have historically been proven to boost the US economy. Tax reductions for corporations and the wealthy tend to offer only a small lift, while new infrastructure spending and tax cuts for lower-paid workers have shown substantially positive economic multipliers only in the medium term.

2. Higher inflation + higher rates = An unpleasant surprise?

US inflationary pressures could build much faster than the market expects, especially considering that the economy is almost at full employment and wages could soon start to rise convincingly. The US Federal Reserve is closely watching income and wage data – two data points that have historically been closely correlated. Depending on what it sees, the Fed could find itself “way behind the interest-rate curve” and move more aggressively, which would be an unpleasant surprise for the markets.

3. Trade could spell trouble for the US dollar

If Mr Trump begins implementing protectionist trade policies, it could have negative implications for the US dollar. The same is true of the failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, China’s expansion of its “one belt, one road” initiative and rising oil prices. The imposition of a potential US border adjustment tax could also hurt corporate profits and economic competitiveness by further boosting the dollar.

4. Cost of servicing debt stands to rise

The level of indebtedness in the US and around the world is significant, and it has been made affordable only because of extremely generous monetary policies. Even with a doubling of the US debt level in recent years, the annual cost of servicing it has remained around USD 425 billion. As interest rates move higher, Mr Trump's financial wiggle room could diminish as the US government spends more to service its debt burden.

5. Demographics heading in the wrong direction

Ageing populations are a challenge all over the world, and the US is no exception. Its economy could increasingly feel the drag of productive older workers leaving the workforce, replaced by a younger generation that is less well paid and more exposed to the forces of globalization. Moreover, by subjecting immigration to the whims of politics, America’s famously flexible workforce could become less of an economic advantage as lower levels of immigration, a shrinking talent pool and reduced relocational flexibility take their toll.

6. Technology is doing less with more

Despite some populists’ assertions, it is not really globalization that hollowed out America’s jobs market, but the rise of job-killing technology – a trend that is certain to grow as companies invest more in robotics and artificial intelligence. In addition, the multiplier effects of new technology and social media, where the US is a leader, are much smaller than those of previous industrial innovations – and much more disruptive to existing businesses. In the end, we may find that many high-tech innovations are better at creating vast wealth than vast employment.

Key considerations for investors

Even in a world where low interest rates have inflated valuations almost across the board, the US equity market is expensive. With an overvalued US dollar, the question may be when – and not if – the US equity market will pull back before starting a new cycle. With this in mind, here are several investment approaches to consider.

  • Keep an eye on Asia: China, India and Indonesia offer the prospect of sustainable economic growth, as billions of people move toward middle-class careers.
  • Monitor reforms in developing nations: Structural reforms provide investors with strong signals about the potential for future returns.
  • Guard against interest-rate sensitivity: US bond markets are already shorting 10-year US Treasuries in the hopes of higher rates.
  • Follow the money: Many US corporations are already buying attractively valued assets in Europe and Asia.

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investments in commodities may be affected by overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Investments in smaller companies may be more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than investments in more developed markets. Dividends are not guaranteed. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk and the credit risk of the issuer. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.

This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations.

This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association]; Allianz Global Investors Korea Ltd., licensed by the Korea Financial Services Commission; and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd., licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan.

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Neil Dwane

linkedIn
Global Strategist
Neil Dwane is a portfolio manager and the Global Strategist with Allianz Global Investors, which he joined in 2001. He coordinates and chairs the Global Policy Committee, which formulates the firm’s house view, leads the firm’s bi-annual Investment Forums and communicates the firm’s investment outlook through articles and press appearances. Neil is a member of AllianzGI’s Equity Investment Management Group. He previously worked at JP Morgan Investment Management as a UK and European specialist portfolio manager; at Fleming Investment Management; and at Kleinwort Benson Investment Management as an analyst and a fund manager. He has a B.A. in classics from Durham University and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants.

When Will Greece Take the Icelandic Road to Recovery?

Neil Dwane | 18/04/2017
Greek sculpture

Summary

Greece is back in the headlines amid continuing talks over its international bailout programme. As its economy continues struggling, what hard lessons can Greece and the EU learn from Iceland, which found a way to turn short-term pain into long-term gain?

Key takeaways
  • When a country is in financial crisis, the right policy response makes all the difference; it takes bravery to force an economic reset that addresses the underlying issues
  • Although Greece and Iceland exhibit important differences – not least in population size and the fact that Greece uses the euro – their post-crisis fates provide a powerful point of comparison
  • Iceland grasped the gravity of its predicament and created an environment conducive for growth; by contrast, Greece’s response led to a severe depression, while the EU focused on more loans instead of debt forgiveness
  • The EU and Greece should take their cue from Iceland and tackle Greece’s problems head-on; ongoing talks about new bailout loans could be an opportunity for a new agreement
  • Investors should watch how negotiations progress; additional EU rescue funds may, in the long run, hurt Greece more than they help
Introduction

The global financial crisis affected many countries' economies in different ways. What made the difference was how each country's policymakers, banks and financial companies responded as the crisis unfolded.

Policymakers in the US and the UK put their nations on the right path and got their banks back on track with aggressive responses – including letting some institutions fail, forcing relief on others and implementing strict new regulations. Most European countries, however, were indecisive about pumping in sufficient new capital and implementing reforms, and their banking problems still linger. Greece is a case in point, and the country continues to struggle today.

Greece: A case study in taking the wrong path

Greece is one of the worst-off European nations economically. Its bank and debt crisis continues, yet its politicians cannot admit the plain truth that Greece's debt – more than 175 per cent of its gross domestic product in 2015 – is unsustainable and must be written off.

Unfortunately, the austerity measures implemented by the European Union and International Monetary Fund have been insufficient. Instead, these institutions pretend the situation is sustainable and provide more loans so they can receive interest on the existing debt mountain. No wonder the IMF is desperate to extricate itself from this situation.

So how did Greece get here? The financial crisis of 2007-2008 exposed fault lines that already existed in Greece's economy and triggered a chain of inadequate responses:

  • International lenders, mostly banks, had extended too much credit to Greece.
  • Politicians nationalized Greece's debts, absolving bank lenders of any losses rather than dealing directly with their solvency issues.
  • This created huge liabilities on the balance sheets of the EU and the European Central Bank.
  • The EUR 86 billion loan rescue package imposed by the ECB and IMF forced Greece to impose austerity measures and pay back EUR 7 billion per year for its debts.

Yet with debt forgiveness politically unacceptable to most creditor countries in the EU, Greece is forced to endure a charade of economic sustainability, and its people are suffering a depression far worse than the US endured in the 1930s. A stagnant economy, low investment, low employment and poor prospects are driving domestic capital out of the country instead of attracting it in. Political corruption is an ongoing problem, and the government still relies on tourism to drive trade and create jobs, rather than stimulating other industries. Even worse, Greece's situation appears set to continue until its debt is forgiven, it leaves the euro or it strikes oil – at least figuratively speaking.

There are certainly reasons why many creditors are unsympathetic to Greece's situation. According to some estimates, Greece has a cash economy that accounts for around 25 per cent of its gross domestic product, and tax evasion and smuggling could subtract another 6 to 9 per cent. Given that 88 per cent of government revenue comes from taxation, Greece desperately needs to find a way of bringing this economic activity onto the books – but it hasn't found a way to capture it or make its citizens pay their bills:

  • Nearly 3 million people (around half of Greece's tax-paying population) declare less than EUR 12,000 in income, which is tax-free. Of course, Greece also has an unusually big farming sector by European standards, and many of its people struggle to make a living.
  • Another 2.8 million Greek citizens paid a collective EUR 60 million in taxes – slightly more than EUR 20 per person.
  • Corporations are not pulling their weight either: 220,000 companies declared less than EUR 1.2 million in annual profit in 2011.
  • More than 61 per cent of the country's corporate taxes are paid by a total of only 900 corporations.

The net result is that not only do taxes remain unpaid, but Greece's bigger issues remain unresolved, exacerbated by a lack of leadership from the country's politicians. However, as Iceland demonstrated, the situation does not have to be this dire.

Iceland: A case study in tackling issues head-on

Iceland was one of a handful of countries that addressed their problems directly and proactively in the wake of the financial crisis. Of course, Iceland had more flexibility than other European nations – it isn't part of the euro zone and has a population of 320,000, vs. 10 million for Greece – but its aggressive response was nonetheless notable. The small island nation punished domestic and foreign creditors alike, allowed its currency to fall – forcing a rapid internal devaluation – and nationalized its banks.

The first few years of Iceland's road to recovery were full of potholes: GDP collapsed, inflation rose, wages fell in real terms and international lenders cried foul. The nationalization of its banks was also a brutal process; only domestic entities were protected, and international interests were trapped behind capital controls that served only Iceland. Moreover, high levels of inflation prompted the central bank to lift interest rates to a punitive peak of 18 per cent in 2009. Fortunately, the government sought to help out Iceland's citizens by using fiscal policy to lower consumer debts and improve social support.

Ten years later, however, and Iceland is close to reaching its goals. It has repaid more than USD 60 billion of its foreign debts, returning to a much safer pre-crisis level. The current account surpluses generated by the fall in Iceland's currency, combined with the benefits of having solvent nationalized banks, have allowed the economy to rebalance and begin to grow again.

Indeed, economic momentum is improving rapidly and attracting back international investors, as Iceland expands its primary industries away from fishing and tourism and toward renewable energy and information technology. The normal economic feedback loops are already back at work as well, with employment rising alongside wages. Capital controls have also been lifted to allow Iceland back into the global economy – its problems fixed and its lessons learned.

Which road will Greece take?

Europe and Greece should follow Iceland's lead and let the markets and capitalism run their course. It will be painful, but the results should be worth it, as two head-to-head comparisons make clear:

  • Debt to GDP – Greece's ratio shot up from 103 per cent in 2007 to 175 per cent in 2015 and still hasn't recovered; meanwhile, Iceland's enviable 38 per cent ratio in 2016 is close to pre-crisis levels.
  • GDP at constant prices – Since 2008, negative GDP growth and high inflation have shrunk Greece's real GDP and its economy. Meanwhile, Iceland's economy has recovered well despite a brief period of negative GDP growth between 2008 and 2010.

At this stage, however, it is unclear whether Greece or its creditors are prepared to make the hard decisions. Negotiations between Greece and its international lenders have become more intense, but the parties have different views on Greece's fiscal progress and market reforms. For his part, EU Council President Donald Tusk has tried to be reassuring, acknowledging that "The sacrifices of the Greek citizens have been immense. One thing must be clear – no one intends to punish Greece. Our goal is only to help Greece."

The danger, in our view, is that if the EU provides additional rescue funds, they won't help. What is needed are real structural reforms and less-distortionary monetary policy – rather than allowing Greece to continue to borrow against its future.

Greece Iceland Chart

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Investments in commodities may be affected by overall market movements, changes in interest rates, and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Investments in smaller companies may be more volatile and less liquid than investments in larger companies. Investments in emerging markets may be more volatile than investments in more developed markets. Dividends are not guaranteed. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk and the credit risk of the issuer. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.

This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations.

This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association]; Allianz Global Investors Korea Ltd., licensed by the Korea Financial Services Commission; and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd., licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan.

138516

Expert-Image

Neil Dwane

linkedIn
Global Strategist
Neil Dwane is a portfolio manager and the Global Strategist with Allianz Global Investors, which he joined in 2001. He coordinates and chairs the Global Policy Committee, which formulates the firm’s house view, leads the firm’s bi-annual Investment Forums and communicates the firm’s investment outlook through articles and press appearances. Neil is a member of AllianzGI’s Equity Investment Management Group. He previously worked at JP Morgan Investment Management as a UK and European specialist portfolio manager; at Fleming Investment Management; and at Kleinwort Benson Investment Management as an analyst and a fund manager. He has a B.A. in classics from Durham University and is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants.
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