House View Q4 2025: Active and vigilant

Our view of global markets

充斥變數的新世界
  • 我們認為,2025年可分為兩個截然不同的時段。特朗普總統年初公布關稅「解放日」,經歷初期的震盪後,市場意識到新現實狀況的來臨,不論是政治還是經濟環境,能見度有所下降。在這個不斷演變的宏觀環境雖需保持審慎,但亦為這同時為主動部署的投資者打開一扇機會之門。
  • 環球經濟增長正逐步放緩並低於趨勢水平 ,各個地區均面臨廣泛有序的經濟發展減速。隨着以美國持續對外貿易失衡為基礎的舊有全球模式逐漸式微,嶄新的地緣政治和經濟框架正逐步成形。歐洲國家重視主權(將國防開支擴展至其他策略性工業)等主題可能為這個新世界格局帶來投資機遇。
  • 多元化投資將至關重要,包括把資金投向更廣泛的資產類別。隨著各國採取貨幣和財政政策日益分化,環球投資形勢亦變得更加分裂。世界各地的債券收益率呈現不同的變動幅度,突顯多元化債券投資組合的重要性。
  • 美國方面,通脹可能再次加速,部分由關稅政策引發。至於全球其他地區,經濟增長減弱有望遏止通脹。隨著聯儲局最終恢復減息,若市場人士認為比起通脹數據的起伏,政治因素凌駕通脹走勢,將可能引發市場警號。
  • 2025年餘下時間仍會出現挑戰,但情況不太可能進一步惡化。除非市場出現重大利淡消息,否則市場不會決斷地採取避險行動。但隨著環球經濟邁進一個更為脆弱的階段,投資者應維持靈活應變的投資組合部署,並考慮加入波動性指數配置,以維持主動出擊,沉著應對的投資策略。

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季度圖表

關稅引起的動盪過後,不確定性籠罩市場
年初以來,美國關稅新政成為市場的一大不確定性源頭。儘管美國與貿易夥伴磋商的最終關稅稅率已從高峰回落,但世界不確定性指數(World Uncertainty Index)

目前仍處於近期高位,意味著美國關稅遺留下來的影響是環球經濟走向變得難以預測。雖然這個局面可能對環球貿易帶來一定的挑戰,但經濟環境能見度降低反而可為主動型投資經理創造充沛的機遇。.

*世界不確定性指數(worlduncertaintyindex.com)是根據經濟學人智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)國家報告中出現「不確定」(uncertain)字眼(以及其變體用語)的頻率而計算出來。較高的數值意味著較大的不確定性,反之亦然。
資料來源:安聯投資環球經濟及策略、Ahir, Bloom and Furceri編製的世界不確定性指數、國際貨幣基金組織、耶魯大學預算實驗室(關稅稅率),數據截至2025年8月7日。

Short on time? Download the summary of our House View Q4.

資產類別確信度

  • 歐洲方面,國家策略性自主依舊是關鍵議題。歐洲策略性行業的翹楚錄得令人信服的業務增長,但估值處於合理水平;北約成員國協議把國防開支之比例定為GDP的5%,屬史無前例之舉,大大有利航空航天和國防企業的發展。金融體系的穩健性和獨立性將是另一個的重大議題。
  • 美國小型股或許能受惠於聯邦政府的政策以及製業造回流美國的趨勢,而同時其他地區的小型股亦呈現具吸引力的估值。受惠於融資環境改善及投資者風險胃納增加,減息可望利好小型股表現。
  • 中資人工智能(AI)公司及相關科企表現領先,加上內地房地產市道呈現復甦景象,均帶動中國股市造好。印度致力推動的「上進型經濟」(aspiration economy)似乎未受關稅憂慮影響– 印度出口美國的貨品佔其GDP不足2%,加上有利的人口結構特點帶動長線的經濟增長。
  • 在科技領域方面,人形機械人和智能機器發展愈來愈受到重視,這全賴人工智能技術進步及領先企業的發展。人工智能的投資主題仍具吸引力 —— 市場或仍低估其潛力。
  • 軟件股再次受到青睞,似乎毋須擔憂人工智能將損害軟件即服務(SaaS)的前景 – 企業軟件具高度複雜性及客製化特性,享有穩定收入及高利潤率。儘管仍具不確定性,人工智能的影響整體偏向正面,因為此技術有助簡化一般工作,讓人類專注在更高增值的工序。

本簡報所載之陳述,可能包括基於管理層的當前觀點及假設的對未來預期的陳述及其他前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或暗示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

  • 我們在個別市場傾向存續期配置的策略,這是因為增長存在下行風險。我們預期,美國等主要市場將出現收益率曲線陡峭現象。基於各國央行的貨幣政策路徑出現分歧,持有全球化利率配置是至關重要。
  • 我們認為,相比美國國庫券市場,投資歐洲週邊國家利率債資產(例如西班牙)更為具吸引力。我們對法國持審慎態度,因其政治和財政風險正在升溫。
  • 宜考慮美國通脹掛鈎債券(TIPS),原因是市場似乎低估了美國通脹風
  • 信貸方面,我們偏好優質投資級別債券發行人多於高收益債券發行人,並聚焦於非週期性企業及銀行優先債。
  • 新興市場債券受惠於具吸引力的利差及美元弱勢,特別是巴西、南非及秘魯等本幣債券市場。亞洲信貸方面,我們繼續看好高收益債券的利差。
  • 我們看淡美元,因為美國經濟增長放緩、減息周期展開,以及聯儲局獨立性面臨更大挑戰。外匯方面,我們看好歐元和韓圜兌美元的長倉。我們亦看好英鎊兌挪威克朗、澳元及人民幣的短倉。

本簡報所載之陳述,可能包括基於管理層的當前觀點及假設的對未來預期的陳述及其他前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或暗示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

  • 從跨資產角度看,我們偏好股票多於債券,看好債券多於現金。我們認為,雖然企業基本因素轉差,但在市場廣泛承險氣氛下,股票能夠維持近期升勢。儘管我們立場是偏向持有股票長倉,但同時會積極運用期權策略以捕捉市場波動性帶來的機會。
  • 新興市場仍是我們偏好的股票市場,其利好因素包括美元疲弱、企業盈利改善、許多投資者配置偏低及股價勢頭良好。
  • 我們對主權定息收益產品的展望維持大致中性,但繼續看好收益率曲線趨陡交易。我們仍然偏好歐元區多於美國,原因是前者的通脹數據溫和且出現避險資金流動,但我們基於政治動盪原因而對法國持審慎態度。
  • 受惠於審慎的財政和貨幣政策,新興市場債券正逐步成為值得看好的長線之選。
  • 鑑於美元作為全球儲備貨幣的地位備受考驗,黃金正逐步崛起,成為市場的首要避險資產,而我們會繼續視之為終極的分散投資工具。我們長線看淡美元,並已部署短期進一步下跌的情境。

本簡報所載之陳述,可能包括基於管理層的當前觀點及假設的對未來預期的陳述及其他前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或暗示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

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This is a summary of our House View Q3 2025
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