House View Q4 2025: Active and vigilant

Our view of global markets

新世界格局
  • 我們認為2025年呈現兩個截然不同的階段。在歷經「解放日」的初期衝擊後,市場正逐步適應政治與經濟能見度下降的新局面。這樣的變局雖需審慎應對,但同時也為主動布局的投資人帶來機會。
  • 經濟成長趨緩至長期趨勢以下,各區域普遍呈現有序放緩。過去依賴美國長期對外失衡的全球模式已走到盡頭,而新的地緣政治與經濟框架正逐漸形成。歐洲主權等投資主題正從國防延伸至其它戰略產業 ,在此新格局下,可望帶來投資機會。
  • 分散投資至關重要,包括更廣泛的資產類別。隨著各國貨幣與財政政策日益分化,全球投資格局愈趨分散。各國殖利率走勢步調不一,凸顯債券投資組合分散配置的必要性。
  • 美國通膨可能部分受關稅推升影響,再度升溫。其它地區的經濟成長放緩則應該會抑制通膨。隨著美國聯準會重啟降息,若市場認為政治動機凌駕於通膨走勢之上,則可能成為市場的警訊。
  • 儘管今年剩餘時間可能仍具挑戰,但情勢不太可能進一步惡化。除非出現重大利空,否則市場不易明顯轉向避險情緒。但隨著全球經濟步入更脆弱階段,投資人應維持靈活的配置,並考慮布局波動率指數,以保持主動與沉著。

Icon

季表現圖表

關稅風波後,市場的不確定性加劇
美國的關稅政策已成為今年市場不確定性的主要因素。然而,即使關稅水準已自高點回落,全球不確定性指數仍處於短期高檔,顯示關稅的持續影響使全球經濟更難以預測。雖然這對全球貿易可能構成挑戰,但在經濟前景不明朗之際,主動管理更能彰顯其價值。

美國的關稅政策已成為今年市場不確定性的主要因素。然而,即使關稅水準已自高點回落,全球不確定性指數仍處於短期高檔,顯示關稅的持續影響使全球經濟更難以預測。雖然這對全球貿易可能構成挑戰,但在經濟前景不明朗之際,主動管理更能彰顯其價值。

註:根據worlduncertaintyindex.com,全球不確定性指數由《經濟學人智庫》(Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU)統計各國報告中『不確定』(及相關字詞)的出現頻率編製。
資料來源:安聯環球投資全球經濟與策略研究團隊、Ahir/Bloom/Furceri(全球不確定性指數)、國際貨幣基金組織 (IMF)、耶魯預算實驗室 (關稅稅率),數據截至 2025 年 8 月 7 日。

時間緊迫?下載我們摘要的第四季展望了解更多。

各資產類別看法

  • 在歐洲,強化戰略自主性仍是關鍵。歐洲戰略產業的龍頭企業正以合理估值展現具說服力的成長;北約成員國 (NATO) 將國防支出提高至GDP的 5% ,堪稱前所未見,並帶動航太與國防產業發展。金融體系的韌性與獨立性則是另一項重要議題。
  • 中小型股可能受益於聯準會政策及美國回流設廠趨勢,同時在其它地區亦展現具吸引力的估值。在融資環境改善與風險偏好提升的情況下,利率下降應能支撐其表現。
  • 中國市場受惠於AI人工智慧及相關領域的領先地位,以及房市改善。印度的願景型經濟似乎未受關稅疑慮影響–對美國的淨商品出口佔 GDP 不足 2% –在人口結構優勢帶動下,具有長期成長動能。
  • 在科技領域,AI人工智慧及領先企業的研發,推動了仿人形機器人與智慧機械的關注度。AI人工智慧的投資理由依然充足 – 甚至可能還被低估。
  • 軟體正展現反攻力道,市場對AI人工智慧將衝擊軟體即服務 (SaaS,Software as a Service) 的疑慮顯得誇大–企業軟體具備高度複雜性且客製化特性,享有穩定的經常性收入及高利潤率。儘管仍有不確定性,AI人工智慧在此領域的影響可能偏向正面,因其可自動化處理例行任務,使人力得以專注於更高附加價值的工作。

本處所載之陳述,可能包括根據管理團隊當前觀點及假設作出的未來預期陳述及其它前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或默示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

  • 因成長面臨下行風險,我們在特定市場中傾向長天期。 我們預期美國等主要市場的殖利率曲線將進一步趨於陡峭。在各國央行政策路徑分歧之下,分散全球的利率曝險部位格外重要。
  • 我們認為歐元區邊緣經濟體利率市場 (如西班牙) 優於美國公債。我們對法國審慎看待,因其政治與財政風險正持續升高。
  • 可考慮美國抗通膨債券(TIPS),因市場可能低估美國的通膨風險。
  • 在信貸市場,我們偏好高品質投資等級發行人,而不是非投資等級債券,並聚焦於非循環性產業及銀行優先順位債。
  • 新興市場債受惠於具吸引力的利差及美元走弱,尤以巴西、南非與秘魯等本地貨幣債市表現亮眼。在亞洲信貸市場,我們持續看好非投資等級債券的利差收益。
  • 有鑑於美國經濟成長放緩、降息以及聯準會獨立性風險升高,我們對美元持偏空看法。我們偏好持有歐元與韓元兌美元的多頭部位。我們也看好英鎊相對於挪威克朗、澳幣及人民幣的空頭部位。

本處所載之陳述,可能包括根據管理團隊當前觀點及假設作出的未來預期陳述及其它前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或默示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

  • 在跨資產配置上,我們偏好股票,其次是債券,最後是現金。我們認為,雖然基本面走弱,但在整體風險偏好環境下,股市仍可延續近期動能。不過,雖然我們看多股票部位,但也積極運用選擇權策略,以從波動中獲利。
  • 新興市場是我們偏好的股市,受惠於美元走弱、企業獲利改善、投資人普遍配置不足,以及股價動能強勁。
  • 我們對主權債券的整體展望大致維持中性,但仍偏好殖利率曲線陡峭化策略。因通膨數據疲軟及避險資金流入,我們仍偏好歐元區多於美國,但鑑於政治動盪,我們對法國維持審慎看法。
  • 在審慎的財政與貨幣政策支持下,新興市場債正逐步成為長期青睞的投資標的。
  • 隨著美元全球儲備貨幣地位面臨考驗,黃金正成為最主要避險資產,我們仍將其視為最終的分散配置資產。我們對美元持長期偏空看法,並預期其在短期內將進一步走弱。

本處所載之陳述,可能包括根據管理團隊當前觀點及假設作出的未來預期陳述及其它前瞻性陳述,涉及已知和未知的風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果、表現或事件與此等陳述中明示或默示的結果、表現或事件出現重大差異。

我們對總體經濟和市場的最新思考,以及我們投資總監對於各資產類別的投資看法。

我們的完整團隊觀點包括投資市場的全面分析和獨家數據。
下載PDF
快速瀏覽安聯環球投資團隊觀點 2025 年第 4季
下載PDF
  • Disclaimer
    This document reflects the views of Allianz Global Investor’s investment leadership going into Q4 2025. Past performance does not predict future returns. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

    Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The statements contained herein may include statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statement.

    The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted. This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations and is for information purpose only. This document does not constitute a public offer by virtue of Act Number 26.831 of the Argentine Republic and General Resolution No. 622/2013 of the NSC. This communication's sole purpose is to inform and does not under any circumstance constitute promotion or publicity of Allianz Global Investors products and/or services in Colombia or to Colombian residents pursuant to part 4 of Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication does not in any way aim to directly or indirectly initiate the purchase of a product or the provision of a service offered by Allianz Global Investors. Via reception of his document, each resident in Colombia acknowledges and accepts to have contacted Allianz Global Investors via their own initiative and that the communication under no circumstances arises from any promotional or marketing activities carried out by Allianz Global Investors. Colombian residents accept that accessing any type of social network page of Allianz Global Investors is done under their own responsibility and initiative and are aware that they may access specific information on the products and services of Allianz Global Investors. This communication is strictly private and confidential and may not be reproduced, except for the case of explicit permission by Allianz Global Investors. This communication does not constitute a public offer of securities in Colombia pursuant to the public offer regulation set forth in Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication and the information provided herein should not be considered a solicitation or an offer by Allianz Global Investors or its affiliates to provide any financial products in Brazil, Panama, Peru, and Uruguay. In Australia, this material is presented by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited (“AllianzGI AP”) and is intended for the use of investment consultants and other institutional /professional investors only, and is not directed to the public or individual retail investors. AllianzGI AP is not licensed to provide financial services to retail clients in Australia. AllianzGI AP is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Foreign Financial Service License under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) pursuant to ASIC Class Order (CO 03/1103) with respect to the provision of financial services to wholesale clients only. AllianzGI AP is licensed and regulated by Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under Hong Kong laws, which differ from Australian laws.

    This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors GmbH, an investment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors (Schweiz) AG; Allianz Global Investors UK Limited, authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; in HK, by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; in Singapore, by Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration No. 199907169Z]; in Japan, by Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424], Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association, the Investment Trust Association, Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association; in Taiwan, by Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd., licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan; and in Indonesia, by PT. Allianz Global Investors Asset Management Indonesia licensed by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK).

    4818794

團隊觀點

關稅與地緣政治雖然一度讓投資人信心動搖,但隨著金融市場回穩反彈,投資情緒可能隨之轉變。我們的團隊觀點將在機會浮現之際,協助投資人掌握方向。

了解更多

市場正處於轉折點!隨著歐洲前景看好,而美國面臨更多不確定性,全球投資人開始將目光投向歐洲。在這個局勢急轉直下的時刻,我們最新的市場觀點將為您解讀這其中的複雜變化。

了解更多

我們關注川普重掌白宮對美國經濟和市場產生巨大變化。隨著經濟在成長、通膨和利率方面的分歧加劇,投資人宜採取嶄全新看法和實施廣泛分散投資。

了解更多

Allianz Global Investors

其他業者經營的網站均由各該業者自行負責(包括客戶隱私權保護及客戶資訊安全事項),不屬安聯投信控制及負責範圍之內。您即將離開安聯投信官網,前往