COP 30 review – has the Belém tolled for COP?

Dominating the news was the exclusion from the final agreement of a global roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels. This year’s conference saw the most concerted push on this topic, with over 80 countries supporting a transition and inclusion of a roadmap in the final text. But the petrostates won again – even after a fractious set of discussions.

Lack of action on fossil fuels may have been the compromise needed to triple adaptation finance to USD 120 billion a year by 2035. The agreement still falls short on both timing (the target was 2030) and scale,ⁱ but it is a start. The conference made progress on common indicators, national adaptation plans in climate strategies, and commitments to scale up public adaptation finance. It was a productive scene-setter for mobilising adaptation finance.

COP 30 saw 113 nationally determined contributions (NDCs)ⁱⁱ alongside improved quality, credibility and economic coverage, with more countries – including China – sharing long-term strategies and formal submissions. But the projected 12% global emissions reduction by 2035ⁱⁱⁱ  (based on 86 NDCs) falls far short of the 60% reduction required to stay on track for global warming of 1.5°C. Prior to the conference, the IPCC forecast 2.3-2.5°C of warming by 2100 based on current policies.^iv There appeared to be a concerted effort by some actors to push science to the footnotes in order to delay the publication of the next scientific reports well past the UN’s second global stocktake.

Trade was a central topic at COP for the first time, with the economics and autonomy of climate in focus. There were discussions about carbon border taxes, critical minerals, the interaction of global trade and energy transition, and the economic and social impact on carbon-dependent economies. The imperative of a just and orderly transition was also highlighted.^v Global investments in energy transition may have reached a record USD 2.4 trillion in 2024 – largely in developed economies and China.

Despite the conference’s Amazon location, expectations on nature were low. Positive developments included USD 7 billion of capital to compensate countries for preserving forests via the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF). There were calls for greater collaboration on climate, biodiversity and land management under the Rio Conventions^vi, and 17 countries joined the ocean-focused Blue NDC Challenge^vii  with additional financing for mangroves, peatlands and saltmarsh ecosystems. However, there was no formal commitment to stop deforestation. Instead, the presidency committed to launch a voluntary roadmap aimed at ending deforestation by 2030.

Food and health were major topics, with “agriculture and food systems”^viii one of six themes of COP 30. Positive outcomes included the Belém Declaration on Hunger ^ix, the new Resilient Agriculture Investment for net-zero land degradation (RAIZ) accelerator to scale farmland restoration^x, and a focus on lowering livestock methane.^xi  Two additional initiatives were launched: The Belém Health Action Plan, providing a global framework for climate-resilient health systems, and the Super Pollutant Country Action Accelerator, which focuses on air pollution.

Financial flows and pledges were limited at COP 30, despite some inspiring transactions and innovation. Yet technology was established as a cornerstone for implementing climate ambitions. Discussions evolved from simple footprints to broader integration into deeper, systematic change, with highlights including a new AI Climate Institute, a Green Digital Action Hub and the world’s first open-source AI model for agriculture.

The combination of Australia chairing and Turkey hosting the next COP is perhaps a good analogy for COP itself – a weary compromise. Ultimately, individual nations’ economic imperatives are likely to drive the (delayed) response to a changing world. A quote from writer Damian Barr seems apt. “We are not all in the same boat. We are all in the same storm.” Revisiting the same topics in the same way, but expecting different results, is not a recipe for success. 

Despite this challenging outlook, we believe there is a future for a repurposed COP. Future conferences may develop into more collaborative forums, in which information is shared and lessons learned about adaptation and resilience. These innovations could be crucial as the world adjusts to a scenario in which temperatures may well rise above 1.5°C.

 

ⁱ UNEP, Adaptation Gap Report 2025 | UNEP - UN Environment Programme, October 2025
ⁱⁱ UNFCCC, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) | UNFCCC
ⁱⁱⁱ Against a 2019 baseline
^iv UNEP, Emissions Gap Report 2025 | UNEP - UN Environment Programme
^v Climate Network, The Belem Action mechanism for a global Just Transition, October 2025
^vi UNFCCC, The Rio Conventions | UNFCCC
^vii Ocean Conservancy, Blue NDC Challenge - Ocean Conservancy
^viii FAO, COP30: FAO brings agrifood systems to the forefront of climate action, November 2025
^ix COP 30 Brazil, Leaders sign declaration on hunger, poverty, and people-centered climate action, November 2025
^x CGIAR, CGIAR supports innovative new Brazil-led accelerator RAIZ - CGIAR, November 2025
^xi COP 30 Brazil, A Turning Point for Methane: Leaders Move to Pull the Climate Emergency Brake at COP30, November 2025