As an active manager, we believe that insight and understanding are the keys to investment success.Some of the biggest factors moving markets today are the shifting monetary policies of central banks and the changing political landscape. Our investment experts help you understand what it all means for our investment outlook and what it could mean for your portfolio.
As a companion piece to Neil Dwane’s global mid-year outlook, Mona Mahajan turns a spotlight on the US, where trade tensions and politics are weighing on markets. Given the increased uncertainty about the second half of the year, investors should stay active, defensive and diversified.
Continued uncertainty means the ECB continues to put the normalisation of its monetary policy on hold. Any rate hikes remain a long way off, but the 6 June meeting will see the Bank present revised economic forecasts in light of the current low inflation environment.
While the pro-European vote held up in many countries, the result will likely be a more fragmented European Parliament that may slow decision-making. Most challenging for European leaders could be the signs of increasingly polarised electorates.
With the US economy slowing and inflation low, we expect the Fed to confirm a pause in its monetary policy normalisation. Given the controlled slowdown in the US economy and equity-market momentum, we believe the Fed has found the perfect balance.
Much like last year's underdog, the stock markets faced some obstacles going into 2019—plenty that would give them reason to extend their end-of-2018 slide. But also like the Cinderella team, stock markets overcame adversity and rallied last month, continuing to build on their impressive gains since the start of the year.
Recent ECB comments suggest that the horizon for a rate hike may be moving further away, based on the central bank’s uncertain growth outlook and concerns over weak inflation. The ECB is also keen to preserve banks’ ability to lend to the euro-zone economy.