As an active manager, we believe that insight and understanding are the keys to investment success.Some of the biggest factors moving markets today are the shifting monetary policies of central banks and the changing political landscape. Our investment experts help you understand what it all means for our investment outlook and what it could mean for your portfolio.
Victory for Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party in the UK general election is likely to be welcomed by markets and potentially boosts prospects for the UK economy. It doesn’t, however, end the Brexit uncertainty overnight – and the UK continues to be vulnerable to a late-cycle global environment.
Inflation can significantly erode purchasing power, but the ECB may be underestimating the true increase in consumer prices by relying on a narrow measurement. Investors may want to ready their portfolios for a higher rate of real-world inflation in the euro zone, perhaps by employing an actively managed mix of equities, real estate and commodities.
While domestic growth appears robust, international risks are rising – including worsening US-China trade tensions and the growing risk of a hard Brexit. As such, we think the Fed won’t take any chances and expect the central bank to announce a 25bp rate cut at its next meeting.
In recent months, the ECB made it clear that it will use all necessary measures to preserve growth and increase inflation in the euro zone. Since then, the political and macroeconomic environment has deteriorated, so we expect the ECB to announce new monetary-stimulus measures at its next meeting.
In the face of slowing global economic growth, continued trade tensions and the prospect of a “hard Brexit”, the FOMC seems set to announce a reduction in interest rates at its next meeting. We expect a 50-basis-point cut that will start a new rate-cut cycle, and we think the markets should react favourably.
“Under-owned, cheap and unloved” – those words sum up how many investors view the UK today. Some see a fresh start in the arrival of a new prime minister eager to change the narrative. But it’s difficult at this stage to look beyond Brexit to make a convincing short-term investment case for UK assets, despite a number of enduring positive fundamentals.
As a companion piece to Neil Dwane’s global mid-year outlook, Mona Mahajan turns a spotlight on the US, where trade tensions and politics are weighing on markets. Given the increased uncertainty about the second half of the year, investors should stay active, defensive and diversified.