Outlook & Commentary
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Outlook & Commentary
Economic uncertainty in emerging markets, potential contagion to other nations and trade disputes could stall the vibrant first-half US equity-market rally. But the markets could stabilise towards year-end as mid-term elections conclude – particularly if trade disputes improve and corporate earnings remain robust.
Outlook & Commentary
Each new report of strong US economic growth, as well as rising but under-control inflation, seems to validate the Fed’s approach to normalising US monetary policy. But the central bank won’t put rate hikes on autopilot next year; rather, it will keep monitoring inflation and risks from trade wars, Brexit and emerging markets.
Outlook & Commentary
We don’t expect much news from the communications surrounding the European Central Bank’s next meeting. But we do expect them to balance expressions of confidence in the euro-zone economy with a cautious approach to rate hikes.
Outlook & Commentary
Europe can’t compete with the high-flying US tech sector, but perhaps that isn’t a bad thing. Europe is a region with decent growth, strong macroeconomic data and many healthy companies trading at a discount – which makes the market’s worries appear overdone.
Outlook & Commentary
Three factors appear likely to shape the US economy through the rest of 2018: trade tensions, mid-term elections and the Fed’s road to normalisation. In a late-cycle environment marked by the potential for tail risks, investors should take a closer look at small caps, energy, high yield and alternatives.
Outlook & Commentary
With the July meetings of both the ECB and the Fed on the horizon, we expect a quiet month for monetary policy, with little chance of surprises. We continue to expect two more hikes from the Fed in 2018, while the timing of the first rate hike from the ECB will be a critical milestone for markets.
Outlook & Commentary
Based on a mix of supportive economic policies and positive market conditions, the second half of 2018 seems to be positioned for growth in the United States. But acceleration is never a sure thing despite what may appear to be an environment ripe for spending.
Outlook & Commentary
While the global economy may be stuttering, there's still room for confidence. The second half of 2018 could get a steadying boost from the US economy – and US consumers.
Outlook & Commentary
The US dollar has long been the currency of choice for banking and trade, and for valuing all other currencies. This has brought the US enormous economic benefits and significant structural downsides. Yet a shift away from the dollar may have begun, which could help the global economy in the long run.