As our Global Strategist, Neil Dwane helps formulate our house view, chairs our semi-annual Investment Forums and develops our investment outlook. Explore his perspective on a wide range of issues and themes affecting economies, markets and investors’ portfolios.
The financial markets are signalling that the situation in the Middle East won’t get out of hand, but US-Iran friction could continue for some time. The defence industry and oil and gas-related sectors could remain well-supported, but overall we believe investors should be cautious yet patient. Look to higher-quality stocks with lower correlations to the broader market and “hunt for income” if headline volatility is a risk you wish to avoid.
This Chinese New Year, more than a billion people globally will celebrate the Year of the Rat. We believe investors everywhere can also find reason to celebrate China as a source of continued economic growth. Even if US-China tensions linger, China’s heavy investment in advanced manufacturing and regional partnerships should strengthen its position as a global economic powerhouse in the years ahead.
The tech cold war. Autonomous weapons. Cyber-security threats. My summer reading list includes studies of all these trends and technologies – as well as a bestselling spy thriller that uses them as inspiration. Prepare to be educated and entertained.
It looks increasingly unlikely that the US and China will reach an amicable agreement to end their ongoing trade conflict. If tensions between the two countries continue to escalate, we could witness the end of a decades-long period of globalisation – with several major implications for investors.