As our Global Strategist, Neil Dwane helps formulate our house view, chairs our semi-annual Investment Forums and develops our investment outlook. Explore his perspective on a wide range of issues and themes affecting economies, markets and investors’ portfolios.
The tech cold war. Autonomous weapons. Cyber-security threats. My summer reading list includes studies of all these trends and technologies – as well as a bestselling spy thriller that uses them as inspiration. Prepare to be educated and entertained.
It looks increasingly unlikely that the US and China will reach an amicable agreement to end their ongoing trade conflict. If tensions between the two countries continue to escalate, we could witness the end of a decades-long period of globalisation – with several major implications for investors.
What does it mean to be a long-term investor? That was one of the main questions underpinning the discussions at our Investment Forum in Frankfurt. Topics included the importance of climate change and the future direction of Europe, as our investors and strategists shaped the convictions that inform our long-term investment strategies for clients.
After a strong start to 2019, the markets abruptly turned volatile. The global economy looks increasingly fragmented, and our mid-year outlook calls for more unease over trade tensions and politics. While there are no easy answers, we suggest investors focus on ESG, hunt for income and invest actively.
Our Asia investment experts and European clients recently met in Berlin for our 11th annual Asia Conference. We think the world’s most dynamic region holds fundamental attractiveness for investors – even amid current trade tensions.
America’s health-care system appears unaffordable and unsustainable. Political pressure is mounting, and recent mergers show that the industry itself knows the status quo can’t last. But until real change happens, perhaps through reformed payment models, the US economy will likely pay the price.
Investment income provides many benefits – including guarding against inflation – but today’s “safe” bonds may offer no or ultra-low returns. We suggest investors hunt for income among “riskier” income generators like corporate bonds, emerging-market debt and dividend-paying stocks.
In the “Year of the Pig”, China will likely continue grappling with slower growth, a mountain of debt and a trade war with the US. But according to Chinese legend, the pig is a sign of good fortune – which is consistent with our long-term view of China’s economic potential.