As our Global Strategist, Neil Dwane helps formulate our house view, chairs our semi-annual Investment Forums and develops our investment outlook. Explore his perspective on a wide range of issues and themes affecting economies, markets and investors’ portfolios.
In the “Year of the Pig”, China will likely continue grappling with slower growth, a mountain of debt and a trade war with the US. But according to Chinese legend, the pig is a sign of good fortune – which is consistent with our long-term view of China’s economic potential.
Our investment experts recently met in Hong Kong for our semi-annual Investment Forum. Amid signs of rising global leverage, political uncertainty and a patchy global economy, five investment conclusions stood out.
In today’s uncertain markets, investors need to be more active and more selective, which requires being more informed about the world around us. These books explore the shifting dynamics at work in the world today – and help us get more comfortable with uncertainty.
Learn more about the investment themes at the core of our 2019 outlook: a “tech cold war” between China and the US; central banks’ move toward quantitative tightening; the increasing importance of ESG investing; and the threat of rising economic inequality.
In 2019, a fragmenting global economy means investors should aim to be more active and selective. While we don’t expect a US recession, politics in Europe may fuel market uncertainty. Meanwhile, China will continue its economic transformation, but tensions with the US will likely pose a threat.
To put our 2019 outlook into action, aim to be more active and selective. For example, make sure you don’t write off entire regions or markets based a single event such as Brexit. Rather, it’s important to understand which stocks/sectors will be favoured based on specific scenarios.
If trade tensions continue, the US and China could lock each other out and create their own tech ecosystems, forcing the rest of the world to choose one over the other. With the global economy already becoming less synchronised, investors will need to use greater skill and agility to navigate the markets successfully.