Five themes for 2026

Theme 1: Sovereignty – how it’s shaping sustainable investing

Matt Christensen

09/01/2026

In the first of a five-part series exploring the themes set to shape the year ahead, we look at how a renewed emphasis on national sovereignty could open fresh opportunities for sustainable investors.

European sovereignty has been a defining theme since last summer playing a pivotal role in investors, regulators and policymakers shifting to a more pragmatic stance on sustainability. Recent events have only sharpened the lens on protecting sovereignty and enabling the strategic autonomy to achieve this goal.

In a previous blog post we shared our perspective on the emergence of European sovereignty – a concept that means acting autonomously in strategically important areas. While once focused principally on defence, the scope of “sovereignty” has broadened following the Covid pandemic, geoeconomic fragmentation and elevated global instability.

Leaders across Europe have called for the continent and its nations to be more resilient in key areas such as energy, security and innovation, to spark much-needed growth and competitiveness. This quickly expanded into the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect us from climate, health, food and water access risks – all necessary for a resilient and sustainable future.

Now we’re seeing evidence of a broader market and policy push towards greater self-sufficiency in other regions. In October, the unveiling of China’s 15th five-year plan focused on lowering dependence on other nations, defending its sovereignty and promoting common prosperity. US intervention in Venezuela and renewed rhetoric about Greenland are a stark reminder to investors of the urgency for Europe to be a more independent actor in the global economy.¹

Our analysis shows eight key areas – which closely align with priority sustainability themes – where strengthening resources could significantly influence national independence and sovereignty.

Eight factors impacting European sovereignty

Source: Allianz Global Investors Sustainability Research, 2025

Policy support is aiding this focus on sovereignty. For example, the European Green Deal, the 2023 European Chips Act and Food 2030 are structured and coordinated actions addressing the above factors. In addition, a European Commission² policy to motivate greater savings and investments may help generate capital for infrastructure and other projects that support national autonomy.

Across the eight factors, BCG estimates the market opportunity to be EUR 500 billion in the next four years, particularly in software and systems, aerospace, automotive, electronics, telecoms and logistics.³ We believe the potential in topics associated with climate, food and water will also be huge, propelling sovereignty from a resilience theme into a broad investable opportunity in 2026.

¹ Allianz Global Investors, Venezuela update: geopolitical shockwaves, January 2026
² European Commission, Commission Recommendation on increasing the availability of savings and investment accounts with simplified and advantageous tax treatment, September 2025
² BCG, A €500 Billion Opportunity for Nondefense Firms, June 2025

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