AI and productivity: research paper

AI hasn’t boosted productivity (yet) – what could it do for returns?

While artificial intelligence (AI) may not yet be improving productivity (according to the figures), investors should be active in identifying future winners – and move fast.

Key takeaways
  • AI is widely expected to have a transformative impact on a variety of sectors, but so far we have seen little sign of a boost to productivity growth.
  • Historically, the link between technological innovation and economic and productivity growth has been much weaker than perceived by consensus: the time lags between innovation and higher productivity growth can be very long.
  • Our research shows investing in the stocks of technology leaders does, on average, pay off in the long run – particularly when valuations are kept in mind.
  • With technology adoption getting ever faster, investors have less and less time to assess the impact of innovations and identify winning sectors and companies.
Our conclusion: while new technological innovations may or may not end up becoming structurally more productive for the world economy – only time will tell – they clearly matter for investors. So, be active in trying to identify the future winners, don’t overpay, and be patient.
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